Extreme Heat

One of the clearest findings of climate science is that global warming amplifies the intensity, duration and frequency of heat waves, drought, and wildfires.

Our planet’s atmosphere and oceans are heating up ten times faster than anytime in the last 65 million years. This has been particularly noticeable in the past twenty years, where the ten hottest years ever recorded have all occurred since 1998.

Even a small temperature increase has deadly consequences: since we started burning fossil fuels, the average global temperature has increased by 1 degree Celsius, which is causing a dramatic increase in the frequency of heat waves.

That heat has contributed to deadly heat waves, more severe droughts and extended the reach of wildfires. In 2015, India experienced its worst heatwave ever recorded, with the loss of over 2,300 lives. While heatwaves are an annual occurrence in India, global warming has meant recent heat waves are hotter and as a result more deadly.

Warming is increasing the severity of drought. A warmer atmosphere sucks more water from the soil, increasing the likelihood for drought conditions. Through 2015 and 2016, drought and rising temperatures left over 36 million people in Eastern and Southern Africa facing hunger. The drought was the worst in Ethiopia’s recent history.

Wildfires are also an indicator of our rapidly warming atmosphere. An extremely dry winter coupled with unseasonably hot weather fueled devastating wildfires across North America in 2016. These included the disastrous fires in Fort McMurray — which led to one of the biggest evacuations in the country's history and went on record as the most expensive disaster in Canadian history with losses expected to total $3.58 billion.

Ocean Warming + Acidification

While record-breaking warming is being felt on land, most of the extra heat energy being trapped in our atmosphere is being stored deep into our oceans causing rapid changes and the decline of key ecosystems.

Since 1955, more than 90 percent of the energy trapped by the atmosphere as a result of increased greenhouse gasses has been absorbed into the oceans.

Mass global coral bleaching events

Prior to the 1980s there were no signs of any global coral bleaching events for the past ten thousand years, and probably much longer. It’s only in the last 35 years that global coral reef bleaching has occurred. Since then nearly every part of the world with coral reefs has been going through extensive coral bleaching. From the Great Barrier Reef to the Andaman Islands of the Indian Ocean, what were once bright colorful coral reefs full of life have turned bleached white then murky brown as they’ve died and become covered in algae. (Read more about our Coral Reef Crime Scene campaign.)

As Laurie Raymundo, a marine scientist from Guam related:

“I consider myself to be fairly objective and logical about science. But sometimes that approach fails me. Today, for the first time in the 50 years I’ve been in the water, I cried for an hour, right into my mask, as I witnessed the extent to which our lovely Tumon Bay corals were bleaching and dying.”

Reefs support approximately 25% of all marine species. A massive coral die-off risks the livelihoods of 500 million people and goods and services worth $375 billion each year. If greenhouse gas emissions remain unchecked, we will kill off most of the world's coral reefs within decades.

Warmer oceans = More sea level rise

As water heats up, it expands. This simple phenomena, alongside the influx of water into the oceans from melting ice in the polar regions and the world’s glaciers, is driving rapid sea level rise.

It only takes a small amount of sea level rise to cause dramatic damage and change — as king tides and storm surges sweep further inland. In some islands, like Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands, the increased sea level rise is leading to overtopping events — where the ocean washes across the island at high tide. When salt water mixes with fresh ground water, destroying the ability to grow important food crops and freshwater supplies.

The Fijian government is already underway relocating 64 villages due to the impacts of sea level rise, while a further 830 villages are deemed at high risk and may face relocation. The indigenous village of Shishmaref in Alaska has voted to relocate due to rising sea levels.

The current rate of sea level rise is around 3.4mm/year, but this rate is growing over time, on top of year-to-year ups and downs. At this point we cannot stop sea level rise, but if we act now to keep fossil fuels in the ground, we can limit the extent of sea level rise for centuries into the future.

If we keep fossil fuels in the ground and limit warming to less than 2°C, it can mean the difference between a sea level increase of 50cm and an increase of 10 metres or more. With 37% of the world’s population living near the coast, the stakes are high.

Extreme Storms + Flooding

Storms and extreme rainfall events have always happened, but with the added heat in the atmosphere and oceans due to greenhouse gas emissions, storms now occur with increasing accumulated energy and higher moisture loading.

For every extra degree (Cº) of warming, the atmosphere holds about 7% more water vapour. Over the past 25 years alone, satellites have measured a 4% rise in atmospheric water vapor, matching the rapid warming of the atmosphere.

Because of human-caused climate change, the storms, cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons we see today are bringing noticeably heavier rainfall, causing more flooding, blowing with stronger winds and causing bigger storm surges.

The June 2016 flooding in Paris and its surrounds was found to have been made at least 40 percent — and as much as 90 percent — more likely due to climate change. The flooding was so severe, even the famous Louvre had to be evacuated.

The June–July 2016 flooding in China that killed more than 833 people, destroyed upwards of 400,000 houses and displaced more than 6 million people was made significantly worse by human-caused climate change.

The unusually warm waters (attributable to global warming) in the Caribbean in September, 2016 lead to the incredibly rapid intensification of Hurricane Matthew, consistent with the trend of rapidly intensifying tropical hurricanes. In just 36 hours Hurricane Matthew went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, causing havoc in Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas and the Southeastern United States as it progressed.

The cost of burning more fossil fuels is very real — it will make storms, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones more deadly and costly. Keeping fossil fuels in the ground is the best way to protect people from untold destruction.

Sea Level Rise + Melting Ice

Due to warming of the oceans and atmosphere, the amount of ice on Earth is declining — from glaciers to the Arctic & Antarctic. This is driving sea level rise, reducing the earth’s ability to reflect heat energy back out to space, and endangering unique ecosystems.

Since satellite records began 37 years ago, the Arctic’s sea ice has been in dramatic decline, losing on average 3.7% of its mass each decade. The entire Arctic region is undergoing drastic changes, threatening vital habitat for countless species (yes, including polar bears) and the livelihoods of many Indigenous communities.

In 2016 sea ice in the Arctic Ocean continued to melt during the polar winter — the first time this has been observed in modern history. Some parts were 20 degrees C warmer than usual. Severe “snowmageddon” winters are very likely linked to the rapidly increasing polar temperatures, with deadly summer heatwaves and intense flooding probably also linked.

The Antarctic ice sheet is also undergoing changes as ocean temperatures increase, albeit more slowly than the Arctic. As the world’s largest store of freshwater, Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a meter of sea level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. Recent research shows that the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise is close to zero for up to 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, then jumps to at least 2 metres once we pass approximately 2 degrees Celsius.

The difference we can make now by keeping fossil fuels in the ground is astounding: if we act now, we can keep the Antarctic ice sheet largely intact. If we don't, Antarctic ice will begin an irreversible slide into the ocean, causing trillions of dollars of damage to people all over the world.

Glaciers are very sensitive to temperature change and as a result of climate change, glaciers around the world are in irreversible retreat. Glaciers provide an important year-round source of water to many towns and cities around the world.

During the dry season a quarter of the water supply to Bolivia’s capital, La Paz, has historically come from glaciers. But by 2016, the dams fed by the glaciers had nearly run dry as glaciers rapidly disappeared. As a report by the Stockholm Environment Institute highlights, the decline is rapid and irreversible:

“One glacier on Chacaltaya mountain, which once hosted the world’s highest ski resort, has already completely disappeared. And the two Tuni-Condoriri glaciers that provide water for El Alto and La Paz lost 39% of their area between 1983 and 2006 – at a rate of 0.24 sq km per year.”

The decline of glaciers in the Himalayas, Andes, Arctic, New Zealand Southern Alps and elsewhere pose significant costs and threats to people and wildlife who have historically relied on their year-round stability.

Because glaciers are so sensitive to small temperature changes, even if we stopped emissions now, many glaciers will still disappear. But action now to keep fossil fuels in the ground can still save many glaciers.

Shifting seasons, habitats & climatic zones

The warming of the atmosphere is changing the timing of seasons, the distribution of habitats and moving warmer climate zones toward the poles.

The spread of mosquito-borne diseases like Zika and dengue fever is increasing as tropical and subtropical climate zones move toward the poles, expanding the habitat zones of mosquitos. As the earth continues to warm, the spread of tropical diseases will expand.

The amount of habitat available for temperate and tundra ecosystems is declining as tropical and subtropical climate zones expand, pushing species like polar bears to toward extinction.

Migration patterns are also changing. For example, many migratory birds have been observed over the past decade to migrate weeks earlier than usual.

Seasons are changing and becoming more unpredictable, making it harder for farmers to know when to plant & harvest. Recent research has shown that summer conditions now arrive 10 days earlier in Europe than 40 years ago.

A note on extreme cold:

An unusually cold patch of weather or heavy snow often draws comment from climate deniers saying that climate change is not happening. But this is untrue:

• Although it seems counter-intuitive, a warmer atmosphere causes heavier snowstorms. This is because hotter air holds more moisture, which is then released in heavier precipitation in the form of more intense rain or snow. As a result, more of a region’s precipitation is likely to fall in heavy storms, and less in light storms.
• The rapid melting of the Arctic is causing a slowing down and resulting meandering (in a wave-like form) of the jet stream, bringing extreme cold further south as it does so. This will increasingly affect the northern hemisphere countries as the jet stream slows and becomes wavier, bringing more intense cold spells and snow storms. All the meanwhile, the Arctic region is continuing to melt and warm at unprecedented pace.

Climate change is already changing seasons, affecting habitats & shifting climatic zones, pushing species to extinction, and farmers to hardship. Keeping fossil fuels in the ground is the best way to protect important habitats and livelihoods.